Saturday, August 11, 2007

Winning Jackpot tips Newmarket Races

Sods law strikes again! In yesterdays email I wrote:

"Good afternoon,

apologies for the time but the Newmarket Jackpot meeting is particularly fiendish today I think."

So then what happens? Yup, all my main horse racing tips let me down but 4 winners and two placed from the Jackpot selections, sods law again i did not pick a winner or placed horse in two legs.


Gambling Housewife Newmarket Jackpot - Placepot Tips

5.45 Yaddree, Hadron Collider
6.15 Tuanku 1st
6.45 Lady Benjamin
7.15 Central Force 1st, Veiled Applause 2nd
7.45 Many Volumes 1st, Snoqualmie Boy 2nd
8.15 Prince Namid. 1st Tamagin

Saturday horse racing tips are online now - first winner in already for the jackpot.

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Winning Horse Racing Tip

Just the one today, my first longshot Paparaazi won 13-2, he was held up, made headway over 4f out, then led over 1f out, driven out to win by half a length. The second long shot dissappointed leaving it too late in the race and made no impression final furlong ending up 5th with Blackheath 4th.

Mark johnstons two runners did not run up to expectations so I am half glad that I had too much housework to do to be able to go to Catterick races even though it looked a perfect day to be at the race course.

Racing Tips 7th August Catterick & Chepstow

Where do the minutes, hours, days, weeks go? Or in other words why am I too short of time to blog? Well, as a full time housewifewho hates housework it seems to take up an inordinate amount of my time and the space in my head yet can never be said "to be done". I guess that is just the nature of the beast.

Racing today is at Chepstow and Catterick and both look very tricky race meetings indeed. The tote jackpot is at Chepstow - another jackpot winning day would be just the best possible result right now.

Anyway on to today's free racing tips as sent in my email earlier today:


Just two meetings today but hey both look very tricky. Mark Johnstons horses seem to be firing again so the top rated Osolomio 11/10 3.30 Catterick is passed over in favour of his Frosty Night at 4/1, 3 points win and a one point double with my nap also a 2yo Johnston horse.

Mark Johnston has a 40% strike rate in 2yo non-handicaps at the track, for a profit of £30.48. Mark Johnston also posts a profit in handicaps for non-juveniles at Catterick, especially with 3yo against older horses, a profile fitted by Frosty Night.

Best bet: Miesko 9/4 3.00 Catterick 6 points win

Next best bet: Attilas Peintre 10/3 &2.30 Catterick 5 points win, 1 point double

Two pts each way & 0.5 ew dble: Paparaazi 7/1 4 Catterick, Throw The Dice 8/1 5.30 Catterick

Combination Exacta: Throw The Dice, Ballybunion, Blackheath 5.30 Catterick

Top rated shorties: Osolomio 11/10 3.30 Catterick

Chepstow Jackpot Placepot
2.15 Pole Dancer, Soviet Sceptre
2.45 Plaka, Dont Tell Anna
3.15 Brassini
3.45 What A Dancer
4.15 Kashmir Lady
4.45 Own Boss, Timber Treasure

Good luck

The Gambling Housewife

Thursday, July 12, 2007

July RAcing Profits

A good days racing results for my tips away from the big meeting at Newmarket. David Barker, a local racing trainer, did me a favour by winning with Choysia 4.40 Catterick which was 20/1 when I picked it and won at 14/1. My other longshot, Fifteen Love 10/1 4.20 Newmarket, managed 2nd at 12/1 and is one to follow for me.

Oh, and later on 8.20 Kempton my nap, Electric Warrior wan at a very nice price of 7/2 taking my tips into a profit of over 53 points for July so far.

So to conclude my tightening up of my selection system - and not having to go out to work - has lead to increased profits from my racing tips

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Winning lay tip

Just the one winner from my main bets yesterday - Drastic Measure 3/1 3.05 Catterick Lay advised, 9th @ 5/2

I am going to be applying more filters to my system for picking horses and hope to increase my strike rate.

So far today my first two tips in my placepot won - the first at 6/1 and the second, also my top rated shortie tip at

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Racing profit July

Ah, sunny July at last...in between the deluges and have crept into profit for the month with two nice priced winners yesterday at 11/2 & 7/2. When I selected those horses however they were Lytham 5/1 6.30 Lingfield & Mayadeen 7/1 3.15 Hamilton so both were heavily backed to almost half the opening show. Pleased I put my bets on early!

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

May Racing Update

Poor old neglected blog, just shows how much my little part time job is interfering with my real interests, ho hum, decision time I think...

Have had a few good Saturdays at the races recently, making a profit on the day for the last three weeks. My offical stats are not so good but taking into account some nice each ways doubles, Exactas etc not too bad at all.

I found this article really useful when making up my own ratings:

Ever wondered how a bookmaker ‘makes’ his ‘book’? When you visit a race course and look along the rows of bookmaker pitches, just how do they come up with the different prices? Surely the figures are not just plucked out of thin air, because its not often you hear the sob story about a poor bookmaker!

Normally the prices for any given race are settled around 4pm the day before a race. Every major bookmaker will have a team of five or so odds-compilers, one working on each race on the card. These odds are then delivered to the trading team, and the rails bookmakers at the respective courses. Once a market opens on track, the individual bookmakers will keep an eye on what the others are doing as the market unfolds. Each will be competing against the others, trying to attract business by offering the best prices. At the same time they need to balance their books and make a profit. It’s certainly no easy task!

When pricing up any event, the first thing a bookmaker will need to consider is the amount of profit to build into his prices. If he wishes to make a 20% margin he will need to price the race at 120% of the natural odds. Calculating the profit margin is made all the more difficult in the UK because it is one of the most over-populated betting markets in the world, and consequently very competitive. Margins too high and you will be uncompetitive, but cut your margins too much and you will make less profit.

Playing The Percentages

Here is a little game you can try, to help you understand how prices compare to the chances of a horse winning a race. You will need a pack of cards.

First, place the four Ace cards face up in front of you on a table. If you can imagine, these will represent the four runners in the starting stalls of our ‘race’. Now, shuffle the remaining cards. Next, deal twelve cards off the top of the deck, down one side of the table. These cards will represent the 12 furlong markers on our ‘race-course’.

In my example, the 12 ‘furlong’ cards comprised 4 clubs, 3 hearts, 2 diamonds, and 3 spades.

Start the race by turning over the first card off the top of the deck. A 'horse' will move forward one furlong each time you reveal a card of the corresponding suit. So, if the first card is a club, move the Club horse out of the stalls and forward one furlong. Repeat until a horse reaches the twelth and final furlong - you have a winner!!

So, how should we have priced up each of these 4 horses before the race? Well, first you need to consider these figures: with 4 Ace cards, and 12 further cards already dealt from an original pack of 52, there are 36 cards left in the pack. Diamonds is the favourite with 10 cards left in the pack, followed by Spades and Hearts with 9 cards each, and finally the outsider Clubs with 8 cards.

Calculations go something like this for Diamonds: 10 cards in a pack of 36 remaining cards, so 10 divided by 36, times 120(%) profit margin, equals 33.3(%) which in fractional terms means odds of 2/1

For Spades and Hearts: 9 cards in a pack of 36 remaining cards, so 9 divided by 36, times 120(%) profit margin, equals 30.0(%) which in fractional terms means odds of between 9/4 and 5/2

Finally, the calculation for Clubs: 8 cards in a pack of 36 remaining cards, so 8 divided by 36, times 120(%) profit margin, equals 26.7(%) which in fractional terms means odds of 11/4

Adding up the percentages you can see the total is 33% plus 30% plus 30% plus 26% equals 119% which gives you your 'over-round' profit margin of 19%

Given that 67% of all races are won by the favourite, a bookmaker might well shorten the price of the favourite, and then add some value to the other horses, to balance his book.

This was obviously a simplified example, with only four horses in the race, but hopefully it highlights some of the reasoning behind pricing up a race.

Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Max_Redd

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Winning Racing Tips April

Poor old blog, have been feeling pretty poorly so Gambling Housewife blog always seems to be the first to suffer, the good news is that so far April is going well, +41.45 points profit on singles to date...

The email tips are doing especially well, yesterday I wrote "Hope you are full of the joys of spring after a long weekend and some good results yesterday with both the best and next best winning plus the first long shot and the first top rated followed by the top rated lay as advised.

Today’s top rated should win easily but the Johnston hot pot will only get 5 points of my bank if I can get evens and Blackthorn similar at 11/10 or better but I will double them up with my best and next best."

Shame about Augustine but still a profitable days racing tips...

Friday, March 30, 2007

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Winning email tips

Blimey, a full week of tipping to catch up on, will have to complete later. Just to say the email tips are doing quite well ..Mondays read 'Lester Leaps In, the first top rated should win easily'..made a tasty win double with my racing nap: King of The Beers 9/2 4.10 Kempton 5 points win...better crack on and get picking some winning horses for today...oh to get the Tote JAckpot up again!

Monday, March 19, 2007

Sunday nap & next best bets won

Tasty little win double for Sundays horse racing tips

Best Bet: WON Euro American 7/2 2.00 Carlisle 5 points win

Next best racing tip: WON Harry Wood 2/1 4.40 Carlisle 5 points win, 1 pt double

The win double paid 13 points to each point bet with the singles returning a profit of 17.5 and 9.38 respectively for 22.88 points profit on the days singles alone.

Shame I can only proof singles as they are not always where my best profits really come from. For example my winning jackpot tips in January paid over 18 thousand pounds so for the rest of the year I only need to make about 40 pence a day to stay on target for 50 pounds a day...

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Cheltenham winning racing tips

Oh dear, failed to find a winner away from Cheltenham yesterday but made a fair few points profit from the tips advised in my email:

'First day of Cheltenham and my main bets are elsewhere although I will be playing small stakes on some of my Jackpot selections, my main fancies being 3.15 Sublimity, 4.40 Spot Thedifference and 5.20 Madroos, two points each way and a small round robin.

I will also be laying My Way de Solzen 3/1 2.35 Cheltenham and Exit Swinger 5/2 4.55 Sedgefield plus a 5 point win on Rebel Army in the latter.'

The main dissapointment was My Way De Solzen which I reckon only won because my fancy Don t Push It fell.

Today I will be hoping for a big day for my Cheltenham tips, especially in the bumper...

Saturday, March 10, 2007

100% strike rate continues

The lay tip wins again! In yesterday's email I wrote:

"Shame about the short price for Zaham as that makes it a no bet for me apart from for the Jackpot. The other top rated - Risk Accessor 11/8 4 Leicester – merits a 5 point lay risk with 5 points on V Williams Holy Joe to win. The lays for Feb & March have had a 100% strike rate!"

100% strike rate continues..tips as proofed to Racing Index

Date Course Horse Type Bet Pos SP +/- Profit
14/02/07 Lingfield Pab Special Lay 5 5 3/1 5.00 5.00
19/02/07 Carlisle Bellaney Jewel Lay 2.86 2 7/4 2.86 7.86
03/03/07 Kempton Karello Bay Lay 12.5 3 2/5 12.50 20.36
06/03/07 Newcastle Speedro Lay 3.33 2 6/4 3.33 23.69
07/03/07 Fontwell Maktu Lay 6.25 2 4/5 6.25 29.94
09/03/07 Leicester Risk Accessor Lay 2.86 3 7/4 2.86 32.80

Number of Selections 6 Average Stake 6.67 points
Successful Selections 6 Success Percentage 100%
Total Profit 32.80 points Profit On Turnover 81.99%

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Monday Winning Double Racing Tips

Not too bad a day yesterday, I got it right when I wrote "Surrey Spinner 6/4 2.30 Ling is worth 5 points win bet' then I got the lay selection correct but not the winner of that race..." but I reckon Climate will beat Blue Sky Thinking today."

My "Next best: Three Thieves 3/1 2.20 Wolverhampton 5 points win" also obliged but my two longshots both just missed out on the places as both came in fourth..

Off to check out Newcastle and Southwell for today...

Interesting article in The Guardian about how greedy punters looking for an edge almost got stung big style.

They thought they "had stumbled upon an edge. The first goalscorer market on Betfair for the Coca-Cola Cup final appeared to be no less than 40% overbroke on the lay side, suggesting that anyone with half a brain could lay every eventuality for a guaranteed profit.
The good news was duly relayed to the rest of the forum, to general rejoicing and cries of "let's get stuck in". Which plenty of them duly did, laying the market for all they were worth - in fact, significantly more than they were worth, because Betfair's software recognised what seemed to be a locked-in profit and did not deduct it from their balance.....

....The problem arose because bets on players who do not start, or have not joined the game as substitutes by the time the first goal is scored, are cancelled, as more experienced Betfair players knew all too well. The market was not overbroke at all, it just looked that way.
The original thread tells the story best of all, in dozens of short episodes penned by those involved, which turn from smug backslapping to shock and embarrassment as it becomes clear that they might, in fact, be neck-deep in doo-doo. Had Betfair not decided to stand their losses, in fact, a number of them could have been several thousand pounds down."

Hilairious although the author does conclude that there are indeed adges to be had but not usually so apparently obvious.

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Winning Treble Racing Tips

Well, pleased black February is behind me and winning racing tips are starting to flow again.

In saturdays email I wrote "Big roll over on the Scoop Six today, can I do a Haddock? For short priced fav backers La Dame Brune should boost your bank in the opener at Newbury, Karello Bay is a 5 point lay with 5 points win on Golden Child in that race. Please note I have changed back to 2 points each way on the long shots…

Best bet Saturday: Coach Lane 2/1 3.30 Kempton 7 points win

Next best tip: Maljimar 3/1 2.10 Newbury 5 points win, 1pt double...

My best bet and next best tips both won nicely and my email tip, Golden Child won at a very nice 4/1 with my singles, doubles and treble boosting my bank by 200 points!

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Nap won 9/4

Found a cracking horse racing blog by the owner of a few race horses, reckon I will be checking it out frequently.

The winners are starting to come back to me - heres hoping for a cracking Sunday to build on Saturdays winning best bet WON Sweet Pickle 3/1

Monday, February 19, 2007

Big Jackpot rollover Lingfield today

I must remember to put it on and repeat my winning jackpot selections!

"THE totejackpot went unclaimed at Towcester on Sunday to ensure a rollover of £206,436 starts the day at Lingfield on Monday.

A victory at Fontwell for 33-1 shot Whitford Don in leg four - paying 45-1 on the Tote - did the damage knocking out the remaining 145 tickets. Paul Petrie, totepool spokesman, said: “The big hitters got involved today and with an odds-on favourite winning the first things were definitely looking good.

“However, a 22-1 winner in the second leg and then a 33-1 winner in the fourth proved too difficult and there is a massive jackpot up for grabs to get the punting week off to a flyer.”"

I wish!

Sunday, February 18, 2007

Winning longshots

...could do with a few at the monment! Moolarman posted some interesting observations about picking long priced winners:

"Here are a few distance switches you should look for. Give extra consideration for horses changing distances from:
1.) 6 - 6.5 furlongs to a 1 Mile or 1 Mile 1/16th race
2.) 1 Mile race 1 Mile 1/16th race to a 6 - 6.5 furlong race
3.) 5 - 5.5 furlongs to a 1 Mile race (this is very powerful!)
4.) 1 Mile race to a 5 - 5.5 furlong race
5.) 2 - 6 furlong races to a Route Grass Race
6.) For Maidens: 2 - 6 or 6.5 furlong races to a 1 mile 1/16 or 1 mile 1/8 race
(super powerful if combined with a drop in class!)
7.) 7 furlongs to 1 mile 1/16
8.) 1 mile 1/16 to 7 furlongs
Well there you have some super-potent trainer distance changes that can produce very big-priced horse racing longshots."

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Longshot wins 12/1 racing tip

Despite the weather forcing the abandonment of both jumps race meetings I managed to find a tasty 12/1 winning long shot - Million Percent 1.50 Ling

In my email about the Top rated shorties: Back or lay?.Si Foo 4.05 Lingfield I wrote that "I will be leaving Si Foo alone" which turned out well as it lost at a very short price

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Racing tips February profits...

Finally, 5 minutes to catch up with my raicing tips blog...only five racing days into this month and already showing 44.11 points profit at advised stakes. The extra email shorties are going well - yesterday both won...the email tip alert advised 4 points on each..

05/02/07 Hexham Bedlam Boy Win 4
05/02/07 Wolverhampton Canadian Danehill Win 4

Johnston did me proud putting in my nap, News of The Day at 9/4 for 22 points profit.

Strange days racing today as both jumps cards have been abandoned so all my tips will be on the all weather racing at Southwell. I quite fancy Barron to put in a 1 -2 - fingers crossed!