Not too bad a day yesterday, I got it right when I wrote "Surrey Spinner 6/4 2.30 Ling is worth 5 points win bet' then I got the lay selection correct but not the winner of that race..." but I reckon Climate will beat Blue Sky Thinking today."
My "Next best: Three Thieves 3/1 2.20 Wolverhampton 5 points win" also obliged but my two longshots both just missed out on the places as both came in fourth..
Off to check out Newcastle and Southwell for today...
Interesting article in The Guardian about how greedy punters looking for an edge almost got stung big style.
They thought they "had stumbled upon an edge. The first goalscorer market on Betfair for the Coca-Cola Cup final appeared to be no less than 40% overbroke on the lay side, suggesting that anyone with half a brain could lay every eventuality for a guaranteed profit.
The good news was duly relayed to the rest of the forum, to general rejoicing and cries of "let's get stuck in". Which plenty of them duly did, laying the market for all they were worth - in fact, significantly more than they were worth, because Betfair's software recognised what seemed to be a locked-in profit and did not deduct it from their balance.....
....The problem arose because bets on players who do not start, or have not joined the game as substitutes by the time the first goal is scored, are cancelled, as more experienced Betfair players knew all too well. The market was not overbroke at all, it just looked that way.
The original thread tells the story best of all, in dozens of short episodes penned by those involved, which turn from smug backslapping to shock and embarrassment as it becomes clear that they might, in fact, be neck-deep in doo-doo. Had Betfair not decided to stand their losses, in fact, a number of them could have been several thousand pounds down."
Hilairious although the author does conclude that there are indeed adges to be had but not usually so apparently obvious.
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